Downsizing of acute inpatient beds associated with private finance initiative: Scotland's case study.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate whether the projected 24% reduction in acute bed numbers in Lothian hospitals, which formed part of the private finance initiative (PFI) plans for the replacement Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, is being compensated for by improvements in efficiency and greater use of community facilities, and to ascertain whether there is an independent PFI effect by comparing clinical activity and performance in acute specialties in Lothian hospitals with other NHS hospitals in Scotland. DESIGN Comparison of projected and actual trends in acute bed capacity and inpatient and day case admissions in the first five years (1995-6 to 2000-1) of Lothian Health Board's integrated healthcare plan. Population study of trends in bed rate, hospital activity, length of stay, and throughput in Lothian hospitals compared with the rest of Scotland from 1990-1 to 2000-1. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Staffed bed rates, admission rates, mean lengths of stay, occupancy, and throughput in four adult acute specialty groups in 1990-1, 1995-6, and 2000-1. RESULTS By 2000-1, rates for inpatient admission in all acute, medical, surgical, and intensive therapy specialties in Lothian hospitals were respectively 20%, 6%, 28%, and 38% below those in the rest of Scotland. Day case rates in all acute and acute surgical specialties were 13% and 33% lower. The proportion of delayed discharges in staffed acute and post-acute NHS beds in Lothian hospitals exceeded the Scottish average (15% and 12% respectively; P<0.001). CONCLUSION The planning targets and increase in clinical activity in acute specialties in Lothian hospitals associated with PFI had not been achieved by 2000-1. The effect on clinical activity has been a steeper decline in the number of acute beds and rates of admission in Lothian hospitals compared with the rest of Scotland between 1995-6 and 2000-1.